Economic picture is confusing

Although more people are working now than at the beginning of the pandemic, consumers will still be faced with higher prices and smaller supplies of goods for Christmas. There is no single explanation and no quick, easy fix.As of Nov. 9, a record 111 container ships waited to be unloaded at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, according to a Nov. 10 ìMarkets Insiderî article written by Mary Hanbury. This breaks the previous record of 108 vessels reported for Oct 21.According to an Oct. 28 press release from the National Retail Federation, the supply shortage came about because of COVID-19, resulting in shutting factories and reducing production. In an Associated Press article dated Nov. 15, writers Tom Krisher and Paul Wiseman stated that many Americans quit jobs that required frequent public contact. The NRF reported that shipping companies responded to this slowdown in production by cutting their schedules. However, there was no drop in the demand for goods.ìDemand for goods and materials is far outpacing the system’s ability to supply them, so there’s a logjam,î said Jon Gold, NRF’s vice president of the supply chain. ìThere’s a shortage of shipping containers; there’s a shortage of space available on ships; there are challenges when ships arrive.î He said a shortage of drivers added to the problem.The rise in demand originated in part from cash received via stimulus checks, a booming stock market and larger home equities, said Krisher and Wiseman. The problem is compounded by the fact that companies are ordering and hoarding more goods and parts than they need so they won’t run out. Krisher and Wiseman also contend that suppliers were caught flat-footed by how fast consumer spending increased that they won’t likely catch up for a while. Another cause of the present situation is that from January to September this year, the U.S. imported 23% more than in the same period in 2020. They predict that it could be deep into 2022 or even 2023 before things straighten out.More people are working now than at the beginning of the pandemic, but that news will not necessarily improve the situation. According to an Oct. 22 press release from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, from March to April of 2020, unemployment in the U.S. and in Colorado increased. The U.S. unemployment rate jumped from 4.4% to 14.8% in one month. In Colorado, it rose from 4.7% to a record 12.1%. Every month since then, the unemployment rate has decreased. In September 2021, the Colorado unemployment rate was 5.6%. National unemployment figures dropped to 4.9%.But those figures are misleading. Michael Pierce, U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said this on CNBC on Nov. 5: ìWhile the strength of employment was an encouraging sign that labor demand remains strong, labor supply remains very weak. The labor force rose by a muted 104,000, which is not even enough to keep pace with population growth.îOn the local scene, the employment picture is the same.ìIf someone wants a job, jobs are available and wages have gone up,î said Bekka Tonn, communications manager for Pikes Peak Workforce Center. ìHowever, many are not seeking work.î At a recent job fair sponsored by PPWC, 400 people showed up. Before the pandemic, they would have expected 800 people.Tonn said many people are not willing to work at jobs they were working at before the pandemic. ìMany are sitting on the sidelines waiting to return to work,î she said. ìThey are waiting to see what will happen.î She said some job seekers are holding out for quality jobs and better wages, making it harder on small employers. This is not always a good practice. Tonn said it can be a red flag to a potential employer if the applicant cannot account for a two-year gap in employment.When federal unemployment benefits ended in September, Tonn said PPWC expected an increase in business. That did not happen since some people still have food stamps and other means of assistance, she said. Tonn predicted people would eventually return to work because the stimulus money will not last forever.