There have been big plans for the prairie around Curtis and Judge Orr roads since the late 1980s. But Santa Fe Springs has had more than one false start in Falcon, proving it takes a combination of elements to create a successful subdivision.Without the proper market and correct timing, developers can spend a lot of money to watch their land stand vacant for years.A plan to create three metropolitan districts that will fund and develop the infrastructure for Santa Fe Springs will be heard by the El Paso County Board of County Commissioners in early 2006. The 6,420-acre subdivision expects to build 5,100 residential units by 2020, but a market research report by Dave Bamberger claims many factors will control how quickly Santa Fe Springs is developed.Key assumptions behind the projected build-out plan include a sufficient water supply, timely improvements to the road system, adequate school facilities, competitive residential and commercial tax rates and good job opportunities in the region.Ray O’Sullivan, who purchased the subdivision in 2003, addressed some of those assumptions. In an attempt to use the water supply responsibly, O’Sullivan said a dual water-line system will allow gray water to be used for landscaping and other non-potable water uses. Metropolitan district funds also will be used to upgrade Judge Orr and Curtis roads immediately, while internal roads will be built as needed.While Santa Fe Springs’ original plan was to market homes to active adults between ages 55 and 70 to mitigate problems associated with overcrowding in school districts, O’Sullivan said that putting together the marketing for that age group will “take a few more years.”Phases 1 and 2 will be marketed to first-time homebuyers.According to an “Amended Consolidated Service Plan” prepared by Attorney Peter Susemihl dated Oct. 13, Santa Fe Springs’ first metropolitan district, called District No. 1, will design, construct and operate all of the public facilities needed in the subdivision. District No. 2 will start as residential development starts. The latter will collect tax-base fees and charges and apply those to services and improvements as the subdivision grows. District No. 3 will serve the same function, but rely on funds from commercial development.The up-front cost for a development this size is somewhat staggering. Susemihl’s plan describes the expenses and the recouping of revenues. Improvements to Judge Orr Road alone equal $1.1 million, and drilling a Laramie Fox Hills well and installing a pump costs more than $2 million. Infrastructure costs, including road improvements, park and recreation features, water and sewer facilities and drainage are estimated at $129 million.Developers plan to pay for the infrastructure by issuing bonds. The average home will cost around $315,000 and have a mill levy of 30 mills, not to exceed 50 mills, and each unit will be charged a one-time facilities fee of $2,702. However, Sullivan said the $315,000 figure is the price “averaged out over many years, and in the first two phases home prices will range between $170,000 and $220,000.” If projected build-out goals are reached, the assessed valuation of Santa Fe Springs should be more than $236 million.In his December 2004 report, Bamberger said the largest impediment to Santa Fe Springs growth will come from its competition. “The Banning-Lewis Ranch remains a mystery, as there is not any clear indication of when it will move into the market place. The Ranch is clearly the ‘sleeping giant’ that has the possibility of upsetting the competitive balance in the land development market when it wakes up.”If the sleeping giant awakens, Bamberger predicted Banning Lewis could absorb about 880 units over a 15-year period that would have been built in Santa Fe Springs. He also pointed out the cyclic nature of home building in El Paso County, with large dips in construction in the mid-1970s and again at the end of the 1980s.In a recent interview, Bamberger said, “It is clear the Banning Lewis Ranch is now moving ahead, and I suspect the numbers in my report concerning that influence on the Santa Fe Springs development are still pretty much on target.”Bamberger also addressed the building cycles. “I expect to see ups and downs in the future, but I factored those into the equation for build-out rates in Santa Fe Springs,” he said. Bamberger also said the peaks and valleys in construction shouldn’t be as severe as they were in earlier decades because “past events were caused by speculative building.”O’Sullivan doesn’t completely agree with Bamberger’s assessment. “I’m very bullish on development in the Colorado Springs area, and I don’t think the Banning Lewis Ranch will affect opportunities for development in Santa Fe Springs,” he said. As for the cyclical nature of home construction, Sullivan said he takes the long-range view and “while there may be a bad year, this is a wonderful place to live, and it is going to grow tremendously over the next 30 years.”
